Nine scenarios. Same model, different assumptions.
The vote share each alliance receives statewide depends on two things we don’t know for certain: how strong TVK’s pull turns out to be, and whether DMK’s welfare schemes deliver enough turnout protection. Below are nine combinations.
All nine scenarios
What this tells us
DMK SPA’s vote share lands in the 40–43% range across all nine scenarios. AIADMK NDA in the 30–34% range. The model’s headline finding survives intact regardless of which corner of the parameter space we sit in: DMK SPA leads on votes by about 9–10 percentage points statewide.
What this doesn’t directly tell you is the seat count. Tamil Nadu uses first-past-the-post; vote share converts to seats non-linearly, especially when third-parties fragment the loser’s vote.
Methodology behind the seats
The seat counts you see here are produced by running each per-AC vote share through First-Past-The-Post. The 4-model ensemble takes a majority vote across architectures.
Read the full methodology for the per-AC mechanics.